Death and Taxes

The first thing my first accounts teacher said to our class was "The only certainties in life are death and taxes." I do not think that my professor had this in mind but I think that Darling has sounded the death knell of the City by announcing the new tax increases. I have always maintained that bonuses should be paid. It does not matter whether they are short term or long term in nature. Bankers usually do not save their money by putting it in an ISA. They will spend most of it. Whether ploughing it back into the stock market or spending it in Spearmint Rhino. Creating another tier of taxes is not effective. If you think that Bankers are being paid more than they are due then give them the incentive to contribute part of their earnings in the form of a charity. The government may not be getting that income directly but it will help them save a lot by putting in money earmarked for certain causes elsewhere. Bonuses of bankers should not be taxed at a higher rate than the others. Instead create a more liberal policy so that people who have moved to Geneva or are in Dubai will come back to London. If the U.K. wants to become a powrhouse again then more benefits should be given to people working in the financial sector not less.
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Dragging the Dog

I was met by an interesting sight as I left the office. An elderly man was "walking" a Lhasa Apso. However the dog just refused to budge and ended up being dragged. The battle between the rest of Europe and U.K. is similar. Now I have to state that by no means am I calling the U.K. a dog. Nicolas Sarkozy made a big mistake by hailing the appointment of Michael Barnier as a victory for the French European economic model and that they will be in control of the City. I have not been to the equivalent of the City in any other country except for America. There is no charm or beauty on wall street or the areas surrounding the site that previously held the World Trade Centre. The area is like a huge monolith. It does not have any character. You know it is there and hope it stays in place and does not come crashing on you. The City on the other hand is like a beautiful panther. Beautiful, full of mystery and most dangerous when injured. It may face extinction but it will go down fighting and there will be humans that will try their best to help its population grow. The Euro Zone are like poachers. They will try their best to kill the panthers off. However if they succeed well they are going to go out of a job. The City may get hurt especially if Darling introduces the 50% income tax on wealthy individuals. However I think the beneficiary of that will be Switzerland rather than Europe. When the dollar weakened, people shifted to Gold rather than the Euro or Pound. I support Gordon Brown for not being able to talk to Sarkozy due to his calendar being full. First Hienry pushes France into the world cup and denied Ireland the opportunity. Now Sarkozy has decreased the goodwill (Was there any left after France lost the 2012 Olympic bid?). You may try to drag a dog but be aware that the dog will be behind you and you have a good chance that the dog will take more than a nibble of your arse.
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Dragging the Dog

I was met by. An interesting sight as I left the office. An elderly man was "walking" a Lhasa Apso. However the dog just refused to budge and ended up being dragged. The battle between the rest of Europe and U.K. is similar. Now I have to state that by no means am I calling the U.K. a dog. Nicolas Sarkozy made a big mistake by hailing the appointment of Michael Barnier as a victory for the French European economic model and that they will be in control of the City. I have not been to the equivalent of the City in any other country except for America. There is no charm or beauty on wall street or the areas surrounding the site that previously held the World Trade Centre. The area is like a huge monolith. It does not have any character. You know it is there and hope it stays in place and does not come crashing on you. The City on the other hand is like a beautiful panther. Beautiful, full of mystery and most dangerous when injured. It may face extinction but it will go down fighting and there will be humans that will try their best to help its population grow. The Euro Zone are like poachers. They will try their best to kill the panthers off. However if they succeed well they are going to go out of a job. The City may fail especially if Darling introduces the 50%
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True Lies

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Credit where credit is due

I have a lot of ideas running in my head. I will start off with this. I mentioned earlier that one of our relationship managers mentioned a square root recovery. He sent me the following link and made sure to point out that it was after he told us about it. I told him that I said his description was nothing short of genius and I stick by it.

Epileptic Disaster

I have had epilepsy since I was a kid. For a brief period I was drug free but had a relapse when I had an accident. Now I have resigned myself to the fact that I will have to take my medicines for the rest of my life. Why am I revealing this? The reason is that an epileptic dance artist is planning to induce a seizure on stage by fasting, not taking her medicine and by having strobe lighting. In financial terms it would be like giving money without sufficient collateral then not hedging your portfolio and then leveraging your investment. It sounds crazy right? However that is exactly what happened. The result was to be expected as the world went through a massive epileptic fit. Once you get an epileptic attack you have to be attack free for 5 years before then can consider gradually reducing the medicine. Then small things like your weight can make a big difference. Cut the medication too fast and it will harm the patient. Similarly all this talk about the pace of Quantitave Easing is interesting. My opinion is that it should be done gradually otherwise we will see a relapse. The effects of the crisis has not been felt as yet. It will take time to see the markets stabilize in a proper fashion. Of course in 5 years time we could see another crash.
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Square Roots and W's

These times are different and they express recovery in different ways. You have the traditional J curve which is unrealistic. A W is possible but the latest research indicates a square root. I read a 2010 analysis which implied this. One of our relationship managers described this as a square root recovery. I thought his description was nothing short of genius. I have always respected his opinion and have had some interesting debates with him. I have disagreed with him on the the timing of investments. However today I shared most of his views. Marriage changes a man. After my divorce he gave me probably the best words of wisdom. He said that there was a choice of going out drinking with the boys and get deppressed or get fit, enjoy life, find someone and be happy. Today he is happily married. I followed his advice. Maybe I will be happily married sooner than I expect. Like the markets; we may be already in November but January 2nd has not come yet.
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